It's just a feeling, based on not much of anything at all. All of this chatter about teams that want to move out of the top 10 is just that, chatter. The Eagles have gone through all of their scenarios, exhausted the phone lines for weeks, and here they are as the draft begins.
Things are going to get really interesting somewhere around the sixth or seventh pick, but the cost of moving into one of those positions to take somebody like Fletcher Cox, the standout defensive tackle from Mississippi State, may prohibit the Eagles from vaulting up from the 15th selection.
Whatever. Here is what I'm thinking as the draft opens for business ...
- General manager Howie Roseman said in an exclusive interview that the Eagles have graded 27 players as first-round selections and more than that as second-round picks. What does that mean? I'm not sure, to be honest. I don't think the Eagles are going to trade out of the first round tonight. They're going to make a pick. But I am more inclined to think they will stay at 15, or trade from 11-14 if they move up at all.
- What would it cost to go from 15 to 6? At least the 15th pick and one of the team's second-round draft picks, and then something else. I just don't know if I see that happening.
- The Eagles really want to stick with the plan of taking the best player on their board. So any position is in play. I have said all along that I think defensive end, for example, is a long shot. But with all of these mock drafts I've done and seen, it is possible the Eagles could have a defensive end as their best player on the board at 15. Anything is in play.
- Andy Reid is in a relaxed mood and he anticipates taking a "very good" football player tonight. One player. I don't see a move out of the second round into the last few picks of the first round.
- Reid said that the trade of cornerback Asante Samuel doesn't mean the Eagles feel that they need to take a cornerback tonight. Both Reid and Roseman spoke highly of second-year cornerback Curtis Marsh, but I say that doesn't preclude them from drafting a cornerback.
- Roseman got into the trade that sent Samuel to Atlanta, praising Samuel and saying that the added cap space helps not only for this year, but for next year as well when the salary cap may decrease. Teams are able to carry some of their cap space into 2013. And, yes, Roseman mentioned the idea of extending the contract of running back LeSean McCoy.
- I still feel it is going to be a defensive night for the Eagles, but what happens if Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd is on the board at 15? He might be difficult to resist, especially given the "best player on the board" theory.
- My faller of the night: If Miami doesn't make the mistake of the draft by taking quarterback Ryan Tannehill, then he could fall significantly along the lines of where Aaron Rodgers went to Green Bay in 2005. Now, what if Tannehill is there at 27 or 28? Would the Eagles consider a move up?
- Yeah, I would be interested in seeing the Eagles move up if linebacker Luke Kuechly is there at 10 or 11? I would gladly trade the 15th pick and, say, a third-round pick if the right player is there from 11 through 14.
- The player to watch in the early portion of the draft is Alabama safety Mark Barron, who most analysts think is the rising star of the draft. Barron could shake things up in that 5-7 range of the first round tonight.
- I have to say I enjoy this Thursday-Saturday format more than the previous ones. The hype for the NFL draft is absolutely amazing and I give a lot of credit to the networks and all involved for throwing so much you know what against the wall. Who cares if it sticks? It's fun to speculate. Maybe in lieu of the Pro Bowl being played -- as is reportedly being discussed -- the NFL can do some kind of ESPY's type of television show announcing the Pro Bowl after the Super Bowl is played. That would attract ratings, I'm sure.