Turnovers are an instrumental reason that the Eagles are not among the NFL's elite eight this season.
With 38 giveaways, including a league-high nine in the red zone, the Eagles cost themselves valuable points despite boasting one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The Eagles set a franchise record for total yards in a season (6,386) and finished fourth in the league averaging 399.1 yards per contest.
But do turnovers alone explain the disappointment that was the 2011 Eagles season? With the record-breaking performances by numerous offenses this season, another stat that is a good indicator of success has become toxic differential. This stat has become popular thanks to former NFL head coaches Brian Billick and Jim Mora, who believe this is the "ultimate playoff predictor" among all statistics. To compute toxic differential, you add a team's turnover differential and its explosive play (20 yards-or-more) differential.
It should come as no surprise that four of the final eight teams remaining have a positive toxic differential in the double digits. Three of them hail from the NFC - San Francisco ( 33), Green Bay ( 22) and New Orleans ( 17). Houston with a 20 toxic differential is the AFC's lone representative here. Only one of the remaining playoffs teams had a negative toxic differential in the regular season and that's the Denver Broncos (-16).
However, the way that the Broncos beat the Steelers (is it an upset since it was in Denver?) in overtime on Sunday highlighted the value of toxic differential. Denver converted the Steelers' only turnover into a first-half field goal. The Broncos likely would have won in regulation if not for Willis McGahee's fourth-quarter fumble that led to the Steelers' game-tying touchdown to send it to overtime. How did the Broncos win? Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas scored on an 80-yard touchdown pass from Tim Tebow. A stat that has been reported numerous times is that the Broncos completed five passes of 30 yards-or-more against Pittsburgh. The Steelers allowed just seven passes of 30 yards-or-more all season, which was the fewest in the NFL.
Where did the Eagles rank in toxic differential this season? Compared to the eight remaining playoff teams, the Eagles would be seventh with a 6 ahead of the aforementioned Broncos and the New England Patriots ( 5). Considering the Eagles' high amount of turnovers, the fact that they finished on the positive side is impressive. The Eagles were tied for second in the league with Oakland in explosive offensive plays with 84. Only Carolina (90) had more. Defensively, the Eagles were right in the middle of the pack, tied for 17th, with 64 explosive big plays allowed. That 20 differential in explosive plays was tied for first among the playoff teams with New Orleans.
Unfortunately, the toxic differential further highlights the impact that turnovers had on the Eagles this season. During the four-game losing streak from Weeks 2-5, the Eagles had 14 turnovers with at least three in each game. In the stretch of four losses in five games late in the year, the Eagles had 12 turnovers in that timeframe. The Eagles had only one turnover free game all season and that was the October 30 win against Dallas. Compare that with San Francisco, who did not turn the ball over in any of their last five games. The 49ers had just one game where they turned the ball over more than once all season.
The Eagles have a lot of reasons to believe that 2012 should be a much better season than 2011. The team's ability to generate takeaways and explosive plays is among the best in the league. However, the Eagles must absolutely figure out a way to reduce the amount of turnovers. The 38 turnovers this past season were the second-highest of the Andy Reid era (39 in 1999). The last time the Eagles had more than 30 in a season was back in 2005 (34). Turnovers could be the difference between the Eagles spending this week a year from now preparing for the Divisional Round of the playoffs or planning yet another offseason.
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